News

MESA Group researchers have published a new policy brief in the Russland-Analysen titled "Understanding Russia's Strategic Deterrence: Development, Culture, and Political Significance." Drawing on the analysis of 250 Russian military documents spanning seven decades, the piece traces how Russian military thinking on nuclear deterrence has evolved through seven distinct phases — from initial nuclear acquisition in the 1950s through today's hybrid strategic deterrence model. The brief explains how Russia's strategic culture, shaped by a deep sense of vulnerability alongside an insistence on great power status, has produced a conception of deterrence that is fundamentally different from Western frameworks.

MESA Research Group is pleased to highlight new research from Dr. Skye C. Cooley and Jonathan McCoy, titled "Emotion as Constitutive of Consciousness: A Predictive Processing Framework for Autonomous Experience." This paper offers a bold reconceptualization of emotion's role in consciousness, arguing that rather than simply responding to reality, emotion actively generates the experiential world through predictive processing. Drawing on Karl Friston's Free Energy Principle and Lisa Feldman Barrett's constructed emotion theory, the authors demonstrate that affective states function as a primordial prediction layer — shaping embodied meaning before conceptual thought emerges.

The MESA Research Group has published a study in The Journal of Slavic Military Studies examining the evolution of Russian understandings of strategic deterrence from the 1950s to present day. The article, "From Nuclear Proliferation to Hybridity: The Evolution of Russian Understandings of Strategic Deterrence," traces seven distinct periods in Russian military thinking, analyzing over 250 Russian-language military documents to reveal how deterrence concepts have transformed from nuclear proliferation strategies to contemporary hybrid strategic deterrence approaches.

A new chapter examining strategic intelligence challenges in the nuclear age has been published in Safeguarding National Security Through Strategic Intelligence, edited by Konur Alp Demir. "Strategic Intelligence Challenges in the Nuclear Meta-Crisis Era: Navigating Deterrence Amid Multipolar Competition" addresses how emerging technologies and shifting geopolitical dynamics are fundamentally reshaping nuclear deterrence strategies and creating new intelligence requirements for national security professionals.

Skye Cooley, Ph.D., Resident Fellow, delivered a keynote address on Russian gray zone warfare at the Institute for American Universities' American College of the Mediterranean (IAU-ACM) speaker series. The presentation examined the evolution of Russian strategic thought and information operations, tracing how concepts from Soviet-era reflexive control theory have been adapted to contemporary digital environments. Cooley analyzed the integration of information warfare into broader strategic frameworks, exploring how state actors employ coordinated campaigns across multiple domains to achieve political objectives while remaining below the threshold of conventional military conflict.

A new study, published in the Journal of Public and Nonprofit Affairs, examines how Ukrainian news media portray nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) from 2019-2024, analyzing 306 news articles to understand media representation patterns. The research reveals that while NGOs received generally positive coverage and were frequently used as information sources, they were predominantly framed episodically rather than thematically and often portrayed as story attributes rather than primary subjects. This framing pattern may limit public understanding of NGOs' broader societal impact, despite their crucial role in Ukrainian civil society.

MESA researchers published findings of their study examining the effects of video background and device type on mental health. The paper is now available in Computers in Human Behavior journal. The project involved 202 college students in an experimental design that assessed mental health outcomes using multiple validated psychological assessment tools.

MESA graduate student Chris Boyington presented his research "Balancing Narratives in the Balkans: Strategic Information Engagement in Serbian Media Environments" at the Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Conference at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland. His paper presents findings from summer 2024 embedded research with the Balkan Security Network in Serbia, where he examined how competing information operations shape Serbian public opinion and geopolitical positioning. Through direct observation, media analysis, and interviews with Serbian journalists and government officials, Chris documented how Russian information operations exploit historical grievances and cultural ties to create anti-Western narratives that complicate Euro-Atlantic integration efforts.

MESA researchers have published a study titled "Ingroup Favoritism Surrounding COVID-19 Vaccinations in the Hispanic Communities: Experimental Study" that examines how ethnic and linguistic cues influence information-seeking behaviors among Hispanic populations during the pandemic. The research study included participants across Hispanic and non-Hispanic groups and investigated preferences for COVID-19 vaccination information presented through experimental social media pages that varied both the ethnicity of individuals shown in imagery and the language used in messaging.