The MESA Group publishes a literature review on the US deterrence policy. See the full report for more details. 

Executive Summary

This literature review analyzes the evolution of US deterrence theory and policy from 1945 to the present day. It is organized into five “waves” representing different eras:

• Wave 1 (1945-1955): The advent of nuclear weapons led to policies of massive retaliation and brinkmanship. Game theory and ideas of nuclear optimism shaped early Cold War thinking.
• Wave 2 (1955-1972): With rising Soviet capabilities, the US adopted flexible response doctrines like mutual assured destruction (MAD). Arms control efforts emerged but the nuclear arms race continued.
• Wave 3 (1972-1991): Détente and increased focus on non-proliferation characterized this period. The superpowers pursued measured deterrence based on parity and proportionality.
• Wave 4 (1991-2010): The post-Cold War period saw deterrence applied to rogue states and non-state actors like terrorist groups. Tailored deterrence became prevalent.
• Wave 5 (2010-present): Contemporary challenges have catalyzed new concepts like integrated deterrence and hybrid deterrence to address multifaceted threats.

Each wave arose from distinct geopolitical circumstances. As technologies and global dynamics shifted, so too did deterrence frameworks. Despite adaptations, limitations persist in reactive policies and the inhibiting nature of deterrence-dominant strategies. Understanding this complex evolution of deterrence thought is vital for informing effective policy today.