New publication: Nuclear deterrence in the meta-crisis era

A new chapter examining strategic intelligence challenges in the nuclear age has been published in Safeguarding National Security Through Strategic Intelligence, edited by Konur Alp Demir. "Strategic Intelligence Challenges in the Nuclear Meta-Crisis Era: Navigating Deterrence Amid Multipolar Competition" addresses how emerging technologies and shifting geopolitical dynamics are fundamentally reshaping nuclear deterrence strategies and creating new intelligence requirements for national security professionals.

Through comprehensive qualitative analysis of over 7,400 news articles and 6,492 blog posts from major nuclear-armed nations, the research reveals an alarming landscape characterized by intensifying arms races, eroding international cooperation, and dangerous new technologies that compress decision-making timeframes. The study examines how hypersonic weapons, cyber capabilities, and AI-enabled warfare are blurring traditional escalation ladders and creating the phenomenon of "nuclear entanglement"—where cyberattacks on conventional systems could inadvertently trigger nuclear crises. Using the ancient figure of Moloch as a metaphorical framework, the chapter demonstrates how misaligned incentives and competitive dynamics are driving nations toward increasingly aggressive posturing despite shared existential risks.

The research argues that current deterrence strategies are inadequate for addressing the interconnected challenges of this meta-crisis era and proposes pragmatic risk mitigation approaches that balance deterrence, arms control, and cooperative problem-solving. This work bridges academic research and practical policy considerations to inform intelligence professionals, policymakers, and scholars navigating the complex nuclear security environment.